A science-based use of ensembles of opportunities for assessment and scenario studies
Item
Title (Dublin Core)
A science-based use of ensembles of opportunities for assessment and scenario studies
Description (Dublin Core)
The multimodel ensemble exercise performed within the HTAP project context (Fiore et al., 2009) is used here as an example of how a <i>pre-inspection</i>, diagnosis and selection of an ensemble, can produce more reliable results. The procedure is contrasted with the often-used practice of simply averaging model simulations, assuming different models produce independent results, and using the diversity of simulation as an illusory estimate of model uncertainty. It is further and more importantly demonstrated how conclusions can drastically change when future emission scenarios are analysed using an un-inspected ensemble. The HTAP multimodel ensemble analysis is only taken as an example of a widespread and common practice in air quality modelling.
Creator (Dublin Core)
Solazzo, E.
Galmarini, S.
Date (Dublin Core)
2018-09-08
Type (Dublin Core)
Text
Format (Dublin Core)
application/pdf
Identifier (Dublin Core)
10.5194/acp-15-2535-2015
https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/15/2535/2015/
Source (Dublin Core)
eISSN: 1680-7324
Language (Dublin Core)
eng
