Seeking for the rational basis of the Median Model: the optimal combination of multi-model ensemble results
Item
Title (Dublin Core)
Seeking for the rational basis of the Median Model: the optimal combination of multi-model ensemble results
Description (Dublin Core)
In this paper we present an approach for the statistical analysis of multi-model ensemble results. The models considered here are operational long-range transport and dispersion models, also used for the real-time simulation of pollutant dispersion or the accidental release of radioactive nuclides. <br><br> We first introduce the theoretical basis (with its roots sinking into the Bayes theorem) and then apply this approach to the analysis of model results obtained during the ETEX-1 exercise. We recover some interesting results, supporting the heuristic approach called "median model", originally introduced in Galmarini et al. (2004a, b). <br><br> This approach also provides a way to systematically reduce (and quantify) model uncertainties, thus supporting the decision-making process and/or regulatory-purpose activities in a very effective manner.
Creator (Dublin Core)
Riccio, A.
Giunta, G.
Galmarini, S.
Date (Dublin Core)
2018-01-15
Type (Dublin Core)
Text
Format (Dublin Core)
application/pdf
Identifier (Dublin Core)
10.5194/acp-7-6085-2007
https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/7/6085/2007/
Source (Dublin Core)
eISSN: 1680-7324
Language (Dublin Core)
eng
