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Climate impact of supersonic air traffic: an approach to optimize a potential future supersonic fleet – results from the EU-project SCENIC

The demand for intercontinental transportation is increasing and people are requesting short travel times, which supersonic air transportation would enable. However, besides noise and sonic boom issues, which we are not referring to in this investigation, emissions from supersonic aircraft are known to alter the atmospheric composition, in particular the ozone layer, and hence affect climate significantly more than subsonic aircraft. Here, we suggest a metric to quantitatively assess different options for supersonic transport with regard to the potential destruction of the ozone layer and climate impacts. Options for fleet size, engine technology (nitrogen oxide emission level), cruising speed, range, and cruising altitude, are analyzed, based on SCENIC emission scenarios for 2050, which underlay the requirements to be as realistic as possible in terms of e.g., economic markets and profitable market penetration. This methodology is based on a number of atmosphere-chemistry and climate models to reduce model dependencies. The model results differ significantly in terms of the response to a replacement of subsonic aircraft by supersonic aircraft, e.g., concerning the ozone impact. However, model differences are smaller when comparing the different options for a supersonic fleet. Those uncertainties were taken into account to make sure that our findings are robust. The base case scenario, where supersonic aircraft get in service in 2015, a first fleet fully operational in 2025 and a second in 2050, leads in our simulations to a near surface temperature increase in 2050 of around 7 mK and with constant emissions afterwards to around 21 mK in 2100. The related total radiative forcing amounts to 22 mWm2 in 2050, with an uncertainty between 9 and 29 mWm2. A reduced supersonic cruise altitude or speed (from Mach 2 to Mach 1.6) reduces both, climate impact and ozone destruction, by around 40%. An increase in the range of the supersonic aircraft leads to more emissions at lower latitudes since more routes to SE Asia are taken into account, which increases ozone depletion, but reduces climate impact compared to the base case.
Effect of NOx level on secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation from the photooxidation of terpenes

Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation from the photooxidation of one monoterpene (α-pinene) and two sesquiterpenes (longifolene and aromadendrene) is investigated in the Caltech environmental chambers. The effect of NOx on SOA formation for these biogenic hydrocarbons is evaluated by performing photooxidation experiments under varying NOx conditions. The NOx dependence of α-pinene SOA formation follows the same trend as that observed previously for a number of SOA precursors, including isoprene, in which SOA yield (defined as the ratio of the mass of organic aerosol formed to the mass of parent hydrocarbon reacted) decreases as NOx level increases. The NOx dependence of SOA yield for the sesquiterpenes, longifolene and aromadendrene, however, differs from that determined for isoprene and α-pinene; the aerosol yield under high-NOx conditions substantially exceeds that under low-NOx conditions. The reversal of the NOx dependence of SOA formation for the sesquiterpenes is consistent with formation of relatively low-volatility organic nitrates, and/or the isomerization of large alkoxy radicals leading to less volatile products. Analysis of the aerosol chemical composition for longifolene confirms the presence of organic nitrates under high-NOx conditions. Consequently the formation of SOA from certain biogenic hydrocarbons such as sesquiterpenes (and possibly large anthropogenic hydrocarbons as well) may be more efficient in polluted air.
Behaviour of tracer diffusion in simple atmospheric boundary layer models

1-D profiles and time series from an idealised atmospheric boundary layer model are presented, which show agreement with boundary layer measurements of polar NOx. Diffusion models are increasingly being used as the framework for studying tropospheric air chemistry dynamics. Models based on standard boundary layer diffusivity profiles have an intrinsic behaviour that is not necessarily intuitive, due to the variation of turbulent diffusivity with height. The simple model presented captures the essence of the evolution of a trace gas released at the surface, and thereby provides both a programming and a conceptual tool in the analysis of observed trace gas evolution. A time scale inherent in the model can be tuned by fitting model time series to observations. This scale is then applicable to the more physically simple but chemically complex zeroth order or box models of chemical interactions.
Oceanic phytoplankton, atmospheric aerosol and Raman scattering impacts on space-based ultraviolet radiance measurements

Oceanic phytoplankton can affect in-water and atmospheric radiation fields. In this study, we develop case 1 (without noncovarying particles) and case 2 (including noncovarying particles) waters model including Raman scattering in order to examine the chlorophyll impacts on the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) Aerosol Index and aerosol single scattering albedo. The waters model is coupled with a radiation transfer model (VLIDORT) for calculating TOMS Aerosol Index and retrieval of aerosol single scattering albedo. The retrieval is constrained by chlorophyll concentration from Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) and Moderate Resolution Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MODIS) data, aerosol optical depth from MODIS, and aerosol vertical profiles from a global chemical transport model (GEOS-CHEM). We find the retrieved aerosol single scattering albedo is strongly influenced by chlorophyll concentration, particularly in the regions of subtropical Atlantic Ocean and Indian Ocean. The maximum deviation between the aerosol single scattering albedo retrieved with and withouout considering chlorophyll can reach 10 percent. Thus, it is important to take account of the phytoplankton impacts on atmospheric remote sensing measurements.
A scheme for calculating soil moisture content by using routine weather data

Soil moisture content is one of the most important parameters as input conditions in forecasting model systems of dust storm, but it can not be directly obtained from daily routine weather report. In this paper, a scheme is developed to calculate the surface soil moisture content in China by using both precipitation and evaporation. Precipitation is directly from routine weather report, while evaporation is indirectly calculated by using meteorological elements which are also from routine weather report. According to the formula by Penman, evaporation can be considered as a linear composition of dynamic evaporation and thermodynamic evaporation caused by radiation. First, an equation for calculating daily global radiation within China is given by using regression analysis and the data of global radiation and cloud cover from 116 meteorological stations in China. Then, an equation for calculating evaporation within China is given by using regression analysis and the data of cloud cover, air temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and wind velocity from 701 meteorological stations. Finally, a scheme for calculating soil moisture content within China is established by using regression analysis and the soil moisture content, precipitation, and evaporation at 79 agro-meteorological stations. Validation results show that the forecasting accuracy of the Chinese dust numerical model can be improved by using this scheme.
The Tropical Forest and Fire Emissions Experiment: overview and airborne fire emission factor measurements

The Tropical Forest and Fire Emissions Experiment (TROFFEE) used laboratory measurements followed by airborne and ground based field campaigns during the 2004 Amazon dry season to quantify the emissions from pristine tropical forest and several plantations as well as the emissions, fuel consumption, and fire ecology of tropical deforestation fires. The airborne campaign used an Embraer 110B aircraft outfitted with whole air sampling in canisters, mass-calibrated nephelometry, ozone by UV absorbance, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), and proton-transfer mass spectrometry (PTR-MS) to measure PM10, O3, CO2, CO, NO, NO2, HONO, HCN, NH3, OCS, DMS, CH4, and up to 48 non-methane organic compounds (NMOC). The Brazilian smoke/haze layers extended to 2–3 km altitude, which is much lower than the 5–6 km observed at the same latitude, time of year, and local time in Africa in 2000. Emission factors (EF) were computed for the 19 tropical deforestation fires sampled and they largely compare well to previous work. However, the TROFFEE EF are mostly based on a much larger number of samples than previously available and they also include results for significant emissions not previously reported such as: nitrous acid, acrylonitrile, pyrrole, methylvinylketone, methacrolein, crotonaldehyde, methylethylketone, methylpropanal, "acetol plus methylacetate," furaldehydes, dimethylsulfide, and C1-C4 alkyl nitrates. Thus, we recommend these EF for all tropical deforestation fires. The NMOC emissions were ~80% reactive, oxygenated volatile organic compounds (OVOC). Our EF for PM10 (17.8±4 g/kg) is ~25% higher than previously reported for tropical forest fires and may reflect a trend towards, and sampling of, larger fires than in earlier studies. A large fraction of the total burning for 2004 likely occurred during a two-week period of very low humidity. The combined output of these fires created a massive "mega-plume" >500 km across that we sampled on 8 September. The mega-plume contained high PM10 and 10–50 ppbv of many reactive species such as O3, NH3, NO2, CH3OH, and organic acids. This is an intense and globally important chemical processing environment that is still poorly understood. The mega-plume or "white ocean" of smoke covered a large area in Brazil, Bolivia, and Paraguay for about one month. The smoke was transported >2000 km to the southeast while remaining concentrated enough to cause a 3–4-fold increase in aerosol loading in the São Paulo area for several days.
Aerosol absorption and radiative forcing

We present a comprehensive examination of aerosol absorption with a focus on evaluating the sensitivity of the global distribution of aerosol absorption to key uncertainties in the process representation. For this purpose we extended the comprehensive aerosol-climate model ECHAM5-HAM by effective medium approximations for the calculation of aerosol effective refractive indices, updated black carbon refractive indices, new cloud radiative properties considering the effect of aerosol inclusions, as well as by modules for the calculation of long-wave aerosol radiative properties and instantaneous aerosol forcing. The evaluation of the simulated aerosol absorption optical depth with the AERONET sun-photometer network shows a good agreement in the large scale global patterns. On a regional basis it becomes evident that the update of the BC refractive indices to Bond and Bergstrom (2006) significantly improves the previous underestimation of the aerosol absorption optical depth. In the global annual-mean, absorption acts to reduce the short-wave anthropogenic aerosol top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative forcing clear-sky from −0.79 to −0.53 W m−2 (33%) and all-sky from −0.47 to −0.13 W m−2 (72%). Our results confirm that basic assumptions about the BC refractive index play a key role for aerosol absorption and radiative forcing. The effect of the usage of more accurate effective medium approximations is comparably small. We demonstrate that the diversity in the AeroCom land-surface albedo fields contributes to the uncertainty in the simulated anthropogenic aerosol radiative forcings: the usage of an upper versus lower bound of the AeroCom land albedos introduces a global annual-mean TOA forcing range of 0.19 W m−2 (36%) clear-sky and of 0.12 W m−2 (92%) all-sky. The consideration of black carbon inclusions on cloud radiative properties results in a small global annual-mean all-sky absorption of 0.05 W m−2 and a positive TOA forcing perturbation of 0.02 W m−2. The long-wave aerosol radiative effects are small for anthropogenic aerosols but become of relevance for the larger natural dust and sea-salt aerosols.
Extreme associated functions: optimally linking local extremes to large-scale atmospheric circulation structures

We present a new statistical method to optimally link local weather extremes to large-scale atmospheric circulation structures. The method is illustrated using July–August daily mean temperature at 2 m height (T2m) time-series over the Netherlands and 500 hPa geopotential height (Z500) time-series over the Euroatlantic region of the ECMWF reanalysis dataset (ERA40). The method identifies patterns in the Z500 time-series that optimally describe, in a precise mathematical sense, the relationship with local warm extremes in the Netherlands. Two patterns are identified; the most important one corresponds to a blocking high pressure system leading to subsidence and calm, dry and sunny conditions over the Netherlands. The second one corresponds to a rare, easterly flow regime bringing warm, dry air into the region. The patterns are robust; they are also identified in shorter subsamples of the total dataset. The method is generally applicable and might prove useful in evaluating the performance of climate models in simulating local weather extremes.
Characterization of Polar Stratospheric Clouds with spaceborne lidar: CALIPSO and the 2006 Antarctic season

The role of polar stratospheric clouds in polar ozone loss has been well documented. The CALIPSO satellite mission offers a new opportunity to characterize PSCs on spatial and temporal scales previously impossible. A PSC detection algorithm based on a single wavelength threshold approach has been developed for CALIPSO. The method appears to accurately detect PSCs of all opacities, including tenuous clouds, with a very low rate of false positives and few missed clouds. We applied the algorithm to CALIOP data acquired during the 2006 Antarctic winter season from 13 June through 31 October. The spatial and temporal distribution of CALIPSO PSC observations is illustrated with weekly maps of PSC occurrence. The evolution of the 2006 PSC season is depicted by time series of daily PSC frequency as a function of altitude. Comparisons with "virtual" solar occultation data indicate that CALIPSO provides a different view of the PSC season than attained with previous solar occultation satellites. Measurement-based time series of PSC areal coverage and vertically-integrated PSC volume are computed from the CALIOP data. The observed area covered with PSCs is significantly smaller than would be inferred from the commonly used temperature-based proxy TNAT but is similar in magnitude to that inferred from TSTS. The potential of CALIOP measurements for investigating PSC composition is illustrated using combinations of lidar backscatter and volume depolarization for two CALIPSO PSC scenes.
Observed poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation since 1979

Using three meteorological reanalyses and three outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) datasets, we show that the Hadley circulation has a significant expansion of about 2 to 4.5 degrees of latitude since 1979. The three reanalyses all indicate that the poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation in each hemisphere occurs during its summer and fall seasons. Results from the OLR datasets do not have such seasonality. The expansion of the Hadley circulation implies a poleward expansion of the band of subtropical subsidence, leading to enhanced mid-latitude tropospheric warming and poleward shifts of the subtropical dry zone. This would contribute to an increased frequency of midlatitude droughts in both hemispheres.