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The sensitivity of stratospheric ozone changes through the 21st century to N2O and CH4

Through the 21st century, anthropogenic emissions of the greenhouse gases N2O and CH4 are projected to increase, thus increasing their atmospheric concentrations. Consequently, reactive nitrogen species produced from N2O and reactive hydrogen species produced from CH4 are expected to play an increasingly important role in determining stratospheric ozone concentrations. Eight chemistry-climate model simulations were performed to assess the sensitivity of stratospheric ozone to different emissions scenarios for N2O and CH4. Global-mean total column ozone increases through the 21st century in all eight simulations as a result of CO2-induced stratospheric cooling and decreasing stratospheric halogen concentrations. Larger N2O concentrations were associated with smaller ozone increases, due to reactive nitrogen-mediated ozone destruction. In the simulation with the largest N2O increase, global-mean total column ozone increased by 4.3 DU through the 21st century, compared with 10.0 DU in the simulation with the smallest N2O increase. In contrast, larger CH4 concentrations were associated with larger ozone increases; global-mean total column ozone increased by 16.7 DU through the 21st century in the simulation with the largest CH4 concentrations and by 4.4 DU in the simulation with the lowest CH4 concentrations. CH4 leads to ozone loss in the upper and lower stratosphere by increasing the rate of reactive hydrogen-mediated ozone loss cycles, however in the lower stratosphere and troposphere, CH4 leads to ozone increases due to photochemical smog-type chemistry. In addition to this mechanism, total column ozone increases due to H2O-induced cooling of the stratosphere, and slowing of the chlorine-catalyzed ozone loss cycles due to an increased rate of the CH4 + Cl reaction. Stratospheric column ozone through the 21st century exhibits a near-linear response to changes in N2O and CH4 surface concentrations, which provides a simple parameterization for the ozone response to changes in these gases.
Uncertainties in SOA simulations due to meteorological uncertainties in Mexico City during MILAGRO-2006 field campaign

The purpose of the present study is to investigate the uncertainties in simulating secondary organic aerosol (SOA) in Mexico City metropolitan area (MCMA) due to meteorological initial uncertainties using the WRF-CHEM model through ensemble simulations. The simulated periods (24 and 29 March 2006) represent two typical meteorological episodes ("Convection-South" and "Convection-North", respectively) in the Mexico City basin during the MILAGRO-2006 field campaign. The organic aerosols are simulated using a non-traditional SOA model including the volatility basis-set modeling method and the contributions from glyoxal and methylglyoxal. Model results demonstrate that uncertainties in meteorological initial conditions have significant impacts on SOA simulations, including the peak time concentrations, the horizontal distributions, and the temporal variations. The ensemble spread of the simulated peak SOA at T0 can reach up to 4.0 μg m−3 during the daytime, which is around 35% of the ensemble mean. Both the basin wide wind speed and the convergence area affect the magnitude and the location of the simulated SOA concentrations inside the Mexico City basin. The wind speed, especially during the previous midnight and the following early morning, influences the magnitude of the peak SOA concentration through ventilation. The surface horizontal convergence zone generally determines the area with high SOA concentrations. The magnitude of the ensemble spreads may vary with different meteorological episodes but the ratio of the ensemble spread to mean does not change significantly.
Impact of mineral dust on cloud formation in a Saharan outflow region

We present a numerical modelling study investigating the impact of mineral dust on cloud formation over the Eastern Mediterranean for two case studies: (i) 25 September 2008 and (ii) 28/29 January 2003. In both cases dust plumes crossed the Mediterranean and interacted with clouds forming along frontal systems. For our investigation we used the fully online coupled model WRF-chem. The results show that increased aerosol concentrations due to the presence of mineral dust can enhance the formation of ice crystals. This leads to slight shifts of the spatial and temporal precipitation patterns compared to scenarios where dust was not considered to act as ice nuclei. However, the total amount of precipitation did not change significantly. The only exception occurred when dust entered into an area of orographic ascent, causing glaciation of the clouds, leading to a local enhancement of rainfall. The impact of dust particles acting as giant cloud condensation nuclei on precipitation formation was found to be small. Based on our simulations the contribution of dust to the CCN population is potentially significant only for warm phase clouds. Nevertheless, the dust-induced differences in the microphysical structure of the clouds can contribute to a significant radiative forcing, which is important from a climate perspective.
No statistically significant effect of a short-term decrease in the nucleation rate on atmospheric aerosols

Observed correlations between short-term decreases in cosmic ray ionisation and cloud and aerosol properties have been attributed to short-term decreases in the ion-induced nucleation rate. We use a global aerosol microphysics model to determine whether a 10 day reduction of 15% in the nucleation rate could generate a statistically significant response in aerosol concentrations and optical properties. As an upper limit to the possible effect of changes in ion-induced nucleation rate, we perturb the total nucleation rate, which has been shown to generate particle concentrations and nucleation events in reasonable agreement with global observations. When measured against a known aerosol control state, the model predicts a 0.15% decrease in global mean cloud condensation nucleus concentration at the surface. However, taking into account the variability in aerosol, no statistically significant response can be detected in concentrations of particles with diameters larger than 10 nm, in cloud condensation nuclei with diameters larger than 70 nm, or in the Ångström exponent. The results suggest that the observed correlation between short-term decreases in cosmic ray ionisation and cloud and aerosol properties cannot be explained by associated changes in the large-scale nucleation rate.
The effect of coal-fired power-plant SO2 and NOx control technologies on aerosol nucleation in the source plumes

Nucleation in coal-fired power-plant plumes can greatly contribute to particle number concentrations near source regions. The changing emissions rates of SO2 and NOx due to pollution-control technologies over recent decades may have had a significant effect on aerosol formation and growth in the plumes with ultimate implications for climate and human health. We use the System for Atmospheric Modeling (SAM) large-eddy simulation model with the TwO-Moment Aerosol Sectional (TOMAS) microphysics algorithm to model the nucleation in plumes of coal-fired plants. We test a range of cases with varying emissions to simulate the implementation of emissions-control technologies between 1997 and 2010. We start by simulating the W. A. Parish power plant (near Houston, TX) during this time period, when NOx emissions were reduced by ~90% and SO2 emissions decreased by ~30%. Increases in plume OH (due to the reduced NOx) produced enhanced SO2 oxidation and an order-of-magnitude increase in particle nucleation in the plume despite the reduction in SO2 emissions. These results suggest that NOx emissions could strongly regulate particle nucleation and growth in power-plant plumes. Next, we test a range of cases with varying emissions to simulate the implementation of SO2 and NOx emissions-control technologies. Particle formation generally increases with SO2 emission, while NOx shows two different regimes: increasing particle formation with increasing NOx under low-NOx emissions and decreasing particle formation with increasing NOx under high-NOx emissions. Next, we compare model results with airborne measurements made in the W. A. Parish power-plant plume in 2000 and 2006, confirming the importance of NOx emissions on new particle formation and highlighting the substantial effect of background aerosol loadings on this process (the more polluted background of the 2006 case caused more than an order-of-magnitude reduction in particle formation in the plume compared to the cleaner test day in 2000). Finally, we calculate particle-formation statistics of 330 coal-fired power plants in the US in 1997 and 2010, and the model results show a median decrease of 19% in particle formation rates from 1997 to 2010 (whereas the W. A. Parish case study showed an increase). Thus, the US power plants, on average, show a different result than was found for the W. A. Parish plant specifically, and it shows that the strong NOx controls (90% reduction) implemented at the W. A. Parish plant (with relatively weak SO2 emissions reductions, 30%) are not representative of most power plants in the US during the past 15 yr. These results suggest that there may be important climate implications of power-plant controls due to changes in plume chemistry and microphysics, but the magnitude and sign of the aerosol changes depend greatly on the relative reductions in NOx and SO2 emissions in each plant. More extensive plume measurements for a range of emissions of SO2 and NOx and in varying background aerosol conditions are needed, however, to better quantify these effects.
Distributions and climate effects of atmospheric aerosols from the preindustrial era to 2100 along Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) simulated using the global aerosol model SPRINTARS

Global distributions and associated climate effects of atmospheric aerosols were simulated using a global aerosol climate model, SPRINTARS, from 1850 to the present day and projected forward to 2100. Aerosol emission inventories used by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were applied to this study. Scenarios based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were used for the future projection. Aerosol loading in the atmosphere has already peaked and is now reducing in Europe and North America. However, in Asia where rapid economic growth is ongoing, aerosol loading is estimated to reach a maximum in the first half of this century. Atmospheric aerosols originating from the burning of biomass have maintained high loadings throughout the 21st century in Africa, according to the RCPs. Evolution of the adjusted forcing by direct and indirect aerosol effects over time generally correspond to the aerosol loading. The probable future pathways of global mean forcing differ based on the aerosol direct effect for different RCPs. Because aerosol forcing will be close to the preindustrial level by the end of the 21st century for all RCPs despite the continuous increases in greenhouse gases, global warming will be accelerated with reduced aerosol negative forcing.
Airborne observations of aerosol microphysical properties and particle ageing processes in the troposphere above Europe

In-situ measurements of aerosol microphysical properties were performed in May 2008 during the EUCAARI-LONGREX campaign. Two aircraft, the FAAM BAe-146 and DLR Falcon 20, operated from Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany. A comprehensive data set was obtained comprising the wider region of Europe north of the Alps throughout the whole tropospheric column. Prevailing stable synoptic conditions enabled measurements of accumulating emissions inside the continental boundary layer reaching a maximum total number concentration of 19 000 particles cm−3 stp. Ultra-fine particles as indicators for nucleation events were observed within the boundary layer during high pressure conditions and after updraft of emissions induced by frontal passages above 8 km altitude in the upper free troposphere. Aerosol ageing processes during air mass transport are analysed using trajectory analysis. The ratio of particles containing a non-volatile core (250 °C) to the total aerosol number concentration was observed to increase within the first 12 to 48 h from the particle source from 50 to 85% due to coagulation. Aged aerosol also features an increased fraction of accumulation mode particles of approximately 40% of the total number concentration. The presented analysis provides an extensive data set of tropospheric aerosol microphysical properties on a continental scale which can be used for atmospheric aerosol models and comparisons of satellite retrievals.
Aerosol cloud activation in summer and winter at puy-de-Dôme high altitude site in France

Cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) size distributions and numbers were measured for the first time at Puy-de-Dôme high altitude (1465 m a.s.l) site in Central France. Majority of the measurements were done at constant supersaturation (SS) of 0.24%, which was also deduced to be representative of the typical in-cloud SS at the site. CCN numbers during summer ranged from about 200 up to 2000 cm−3 and during winter from 50 up to 3000 cm−3. Variability of CCN number was explained by both particle chemistry and size distribution variability. The higher CCN concentrations were measured in continental, in contrast to marine, air masses. Aerosol CCN activity was described with a single hygroscopicity parameter κ. Range of this parameter was 0.29 ± 0.13 in summer and 0.43 ± 0.19 in winter. When calculated using SS of 0.51% during summer, κ of 0.22 ± 0.07 was obtained. The decrease with increasing SS is likely explained by the particle size dependent chemistry with smaller particles containing higher amounts of freshly emitted organic species. Higher κ values during winter were for the most part explained by the observed aged organics (analysed from organic m/z 44 ratio) rather than from aerosol organic to inorganic volume fraction. The obtained κ values also fit well within the range of previously proposed global continental κ of 0.27 ± 0.21. During winter, the smallest κ values and the highest organic fractions were measured in marine air masses. CCN closure using bulk AMS chemistry led to positive bias of 5% and 2% in winter and summer, respectively. This is suspected to stem from size dependent aerosol organic fraction, which is underestimated by using AMS bulk mass composition. Finally, the results were combined with size distributions measured from interstitial and whole air inlets to obtain activated droplet size distributions. Cloud droplet number concentrations were shown to increase with accumulation mode particle number, while the real in-cloud SS correspondingly decreased. These results provide evidence on the effects of aerosol particles on maximum cloud supersaturations. Further work with detailed characterisation of cloud properties is proposed in order to provide more quantitative estimates on aerosol effects on clouds.
Variability in upwelling across the tropical tropopause and correlations with tracers in the lower stratosphere

Temporal variability of the upwelling near the tropical tropopause on daily to annual timescales is investigated using three different estimates computed from the ERA-Interim reanalysis. These include upwelling archived by the reanalysis, plus estimates derived from thermodynamic and momentum balance calculations. Substantial variability in upwelling is observed on both seasonal and sub-seasonal timescales, and the three estimates show reasonably good agreement. Tropical upwelling should exert strong influence on temperatures and on tracers with large vertical gradients in the lower stratosphere. We test this behavior by comparing the calculated upwelling estimates with observed temperatures in the tropical lower stratosphere, and with measurements of ozone and carbon monoxide (CO) from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) satellite instrument. Time series of temperature, ozone and CO are well correlated in the tropical lower stratosphere, and we quantify the influence of tropical upwelling on this joint variability. Strong coherent annual cycles observed in each quantity are found to reflect the seasonal cycle in upwelling. Statistically significant correlations between upwelling, temperatures and tracers are also found for sub-seasonal timescales, demonstrating the importance of upwelling in forcing transient variability in the lower tropical stratosphere.
A new multi-gas constrained model of trace gas non-homogeneous transport in firn: evaluation and behaviour at eleven polar sites

Insoluble trace gases are trapped in polar ice at the firn-ice transition, at approximately 50 to 100 m below the surface, depending primarily on the site temperature and snow accumulation. Models of trace gas transport in polar firn are used to relate firn air and ice core records of trace gases to their atmospheric history. We propose a new model based on the following contributions. First, the firn air transport model is revised in a poromechanics framework with emphasis on the non-homogeneous properties and the treatment of gravitational settling. We then derive a nonlinear least square multi-gas optimisation scheme to calculate the effective firn diffusivity (automatic diffusivity tuning). The improvements gained by the multi-gas approach are investigated (up to ten gases for a single site are included in the optimisation process). We apply the model to four Arctic (Devon Island, NEEM, North GRIP, Summit) and seven Antarctic (DE08, Berkner Island, Siple Dome, Dronning Maud Land, South Pole, Dome C, Vostok) sites and calculate their respective depth-dependent diffusivity profiles. Among these different sites, a relationship is inferred between the snow accumulation rate and an increasing thickness of the lock-in zone defined from the isotopic composition of molecular nitrogen in firn air (denoted δ15N). It is associated with a reduced diffusivity value and an increased ratio of advective to diffusive flux in deep firn, which is particularly important at high accumulation rate sites. This has implications for the understanding of δ15N of N2 records in ice cores, in relation with past variations of the snow accumulation rate. As the snow accumulation rate is clearly a primary control on the thickness of the lock-in zone, our new approach that allows for the estimation of the lock-in zone width as a function of accumulation may lead to a better constraint on the age difference between the ice and entrapped gases.