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Substorm correlated absorption on a 3200 km trans-auroral HF propagation path

A high-frequency transmitter located at Clyde River, NWT, Canada, and a receiver located near Boston, USA, provide a 3200 km trans-auroral, near-meridional propagation path over which the propagation characteristics have been measured. Out of the fourteen frequencies in the HF band sampled every hour for the duration of the experimental campaign (16 January–8 February 1989), the signal level measurements of 6.800 MHz transmissions were selected in order to determine the extent and occurrence of auroral absorption. The median level of auroral absorption along the path is found to increase with geomagnetic activity, quantified by the index Kp, with the increase being greater in the post-midnight sector than in the pre-midnight sector. This asymmetric behaviour is attributed to the precipitation of high energy electrons into the midnight and morning sector auroral D region. The measured diurnal variation in the median level of absorption is consistent with previous models describing the extent and magnitude of auroral absorption and electron precipitation. Individual substorms, identified from geosynchronous satellite data, are found to cause short-lived absorption events in the HF signal level of ~30 dB at 6.800 MHz. The occurrence of substorm correlated auroral absorption events is confined to the midnight and morning sectors, consistent with the location of the electron precipitation. The magnitude of absorption is related to the magnetotail stress during the substorm growth phase and the magnetotail relaxation during the substorm expansion phase onset. The absorption magnitude and the occurrence of substorms during the period of the campaign increase at times of high Kp , leading to an increase in median auroral absorption during disturbed periods.
Tidal variations in the high-latitude E- and F-region observed by EISCAT

During the MLTCS (Mesosphere-Lower Thermosphere Coupling Study) campaign the EISCAT UHF radar was continuously operated over 7 days (30 July–5 August 1992) in the CP-1 mode. The long time series obtained of the fundamental ionospheric parameters field-aligned ion velocity (Vi), ion and electron temperature (T and Te), and electron density (Ne) are useful in investigating tidal variations in the E- and F-region since the geomagnetic activity was particularly low during the time of measurement. Maximum entropy spectra of the parameters were calculated for the relatively quiet interval from 1 August to 4 August 1992 and indicated dominant variations with harmonics of 24 hours. In the electron density spectrum especially, harmonics up to the sixth order (4-h period) are clearly visible. The phase and amplitude height profiles (100–450 km) of the diurnal, semidiurnal, and terdiurnal variations were determined by Fourier transform for a 24-h data set beginning at 12:00 UT on 3 August 1992 when the contaminating influences of electric fields were negligible. The tidal variations of the ion temperatures are compared with the corresponding variations of the neutral temperature predicted by the MSISE-90 model. A remarkable result is the dominance of terdiurnal temperature oscillations at E-region heights on 3–4 August 1992, while the measured diurnal and semidiurnal variations were negligible. The finding was confirmed by the analysis of further EISCAT data (2–3 August 1989, 2–3 July 1990, 31 March–1 April 1992) which also showed a dominant terdiurnal temperature tide in the E-region. This is different from numerous observations of tides in the E-region at mid-latitudes where the diurnal and especially the semidiurnal temperature oscillations were dominant.
The use of interplanetary scintillation maps in the prediction of geomagnetic activity

Interplanetary scintillation (IPS), the twinkling of small angular diameter radio sources, arises from the interaction of the signal with small-scale plasma irregularities in the solar wind. The technique may be used to sense remotely the near-Earth heliosphere and has potential for tracking large-scale interplanetary disturbances from close to the Sun to the Earth. Such observations might be useful within routine geomagnetic forecasts, and we use data from the Mullard Radio Astronomy Observatory to test this suggestion. A forecast was based on the visual evaluation of each daily map. If an IPS event was observed then we proposed that any associated geomagnetic activity would occur either on that day, or during the following two days. We consider the success of these forecasts in predicting days when either an SSC/SI or an Ap value exceeding 30 were recorded. The identification of IPS events is necessarily subjective and so two observers compiled independent events lists, and the results were compared. Approximately half of the IPS events in each list were followed by a geomagnetic signature but comparison of the two lists showed that different days were being chosen. We also found that the forecasts had very high false alarm rates. Since IPS is sensitive to a volume we did not expect all events to be associated with a geomagnetic signature. However, the technique failed to forecast a large proportion of geomagnetic events and the association between IPS events and geomagnetic activity is not much better than would be expected by chance. Comparing the IPS forecasts with forecasts of Ap released by the Space Environment Services Center (SESC) we found that SESC correctly predicted a similar proportion of days when Apgeq30, but that the performance was significantly better than would be expected by chance, and had a much lower false alarm rate. We conclude that these IPS data cannot be used alone to produce reliable geomagnetic activity forecasts.
A numerical model of the ionosphere, including the E-region above EISCAT

It has been previously demonstrated that a two-ion (O+ and H+) 8-moment time-dependent fluid model was able to reproduce correctly the ionospheric structure in the altitude range probed by the EISCAT-VHF radar. In the present study, the model is extended down to the E-region where molecular ion chemistry (NO+ and O+2, essentially) prevails over transport; EISCAT-UHF observations confirmed previous theoretical predictions that during events of intense E×B induced convection drifts, molecular ions (mainly NO+) predominate over O+ ions up to altitudes of 300 km. In addition to this extension of the model down to the E-region, the ionization and heating resulting from both solar insolation and particle precipitation is now taken into account in a consistent manner through a complete kinetic transport code. The effects of E×B induced convection drifts on the E- and F-region are presented: the balance between O+ and NO+ ions is drastically affected; the electric field acts to deplete the O+ ion concentration. The [NO+]/[O+] transition altitude varies from 190 km to 320 km as the perpendicular electric field increases from 0 to 100 mV m-1. An interesting additional by-product of the model is that it also predicts the presence of a noticeable fraction of N+ ions in the topside ionosphere in good agreement with Retarding Ion Mass Spectrometer measurements onboard Dynamic Explorer.
The use of various interplanetary scintillation indices within geomagnetic forecasts

Interplanetary scintillation (IPS), the twinkling of small angular diameter radio sources, is caused by the interaction of the signal with small-scale plasma irregularities in the solar wind. The technique may be used to sense remotely the near-Earth heliosphere and observations of a sufficiently large number of sources may be used to track large-scale disturbances as they propagate from close to the Sun to the Earth. Therefore, such observations have potential for use within geomagnetic forecasts. We use daily data from the Mullard Radio Astronomy Observatory, made available through the World Data Centre, to test the success of geomagnetic forecasts based on IPS observations. The approach discussed here was based on the reduction of the information in a map to a single number or series of numbers. The advantages of an index of this nature are that it may be produced routinely and that it could ideally forecast both the occurrence and intensity of geomagnetic activity. We start from an index that has already been described in the literature, INDEX35. On the basis of visual examination of the data in a full skymap format modifications were made to the way in which the index was calculated. It was hoped that these would lead to an improvement in its forecasting ability. Here we assess the forecasting potential of the index using the value of the correlation coefficient between daily Ap and the IPS index, with IPS leading by 1 day. We also compare the forecast based on the IPS index with forecasts of Ap currently released by the Space Environment Services Center (SESC). Although we find that the maximum improvement achieved is small, and does not represent a significant advance in forecasting ability, the IPS forecasts at this phase of the solar cycle are of a similar quality to those made by SESC.
Rocket observation of atomic oxygen and night airglow: Measurement of concentration with an improved resonance fluorescence technique

An improved resonant fluorescence instrument for measuring atomic oxygen concentration was developed to avoid the Doppler effect and the aerodynamic shock effect due to the supersonic motion of a rocket. The shock effect is reduced by adopting a sharp wedge-shaped housing and by scanning of the detector field of view to change the distance between the scattering volume and the surface of the housing. The scanning enables us to determine absolute values of atomic oxygen concentration from relative variation of the scattered light signal due to the self-absorption. The instrument was calibrated in the laboratory, and the numerical simulation reproduced the calibration result. Using the instrument, the altitude profile of atomic oxygen concentration was observed by a rocket experiment at Uchinoura (31°N) on 28 January 1992. The data obtained from the rocket experiment were not perfectly free from the shock effect, but errors due to the effect were reduced by the data analysis procedure. The observed maximum concentration was 3.8× 1011 cm–3 at altitudes around 94 km. The systematic error is estimated to be less than ±0.7×1011 cm–3 and the relative random error is less than±0.07× 1011 cm–3at the same altitudes. The altitude profile of the OI 557.7-nm airglow was also observed in the same rocket experiment. The maximum volume emission rate was found to be 150 photons cm–3 s–1 at 94 km. The observed altitude profiles are compared with the MSIS model and other in situ observations.
Multi-instrument ground-based observations of a travelling convection vortices event

A coordinated ground-based observational campaign using the IMAGE magnetometer network, EISCAT radars and optical instruments on Svalbard has made possible detailed studies of a travelling convection vortices (TCV) event on 6 January 1992. Combining the data from these facilities allows us to draw a very detailed picture of the features and dynamics of this TCV event. On the way from the noon to the drawn meridian, the vortices went through a remarkable development. The propagation velocity in the ionosphere increased from 2.5 to 7.4 km s–1, and the orientation of the major axes of the vortices rotated from being almost parallel to the magnetic meridian near noon to essentially perpendicular at dawn. By combining electric fields obtained by EISCAT and ionospheric currents deduced from magnetic field recordings, conductivities associated with the vortices could be estimated. Contrary to expectations we found higher conductivities below the downward field aligned current (FAC) filament than below the upward directed. Unexpected results also emerged from the optical observations. For most of the time there were no discrete aurora at 557.7 nm associated with the TCVs. Only once did a discrete form appear at the foot of the upward FAC. This aurora subsequently expanded eastward and westward leaving its centre at the same longitude while the TCV continued to travel westward. Also we try to identify the source regions of TCVs in the magnetosphere and discuss possible generation mechanisms.
Multifractal scaling of the kinetic energy flux in solar wind turbulence

The geometrical and scaling properties of the energy flux of the turbulent kinetic energy in the solar wind have been studied. Using present experimental technology in solar wind measurements we cannot directly measure the real volumetric dissipation rate, ε(t), but are constrained to represent it by its surrogate the energy flux near the dissipation range at the proton gyro scale. There is evidence for the multifractal nature of the so defined dissipation field ε(t), a result derived from the scaling exponents of its statistical moments. The generalized dimension Dq has been determined and reveals that the dissipation field has a multifractal structure, which is not compatible with a scale-invariant cascade. The related multifractal spectrum α has been estimated for the first time for MHD turbulence in the solar wind. Its features resemble those obtained for turbulent fluids and other nonlinear multifractal systems. The generalized dimension Dq can for turbulence in high-speed streams be fitted well by the functional dependence of the p-model with a comparatively large parameter p1=0.87, indicating a strongly intermittent multifractal energy cascade. The experimental value for Dp/3 used in the scaling exponent s(p) of the velocity structure function gives an exponent that can describe some of the observations. The scaling exponent μ of the autocorrelation function of ε (t) has also been directly evaluated, being 0.37. Finally, the mean dissipation rate was determined, which could be used in solar wind heating models.
An extended structure-function model and its application to the analysis of solar wind intermittency properties

An extended structure-function model is developed by including the new effect in the p-model of Meneveau and Sreenivasan which shows that the averaged energy cascade rate changes with scale, a situation which has been found to prevail in non-fully-developed turbulence in the inner solar wind. This model is useful for the small-scale fluctuations in the inner heliosphere, where the turbulence is not fully developed and cannot be explained quantitatively by any of the previous intermittency turbulence models. With two model parameters, the intrinsic index of the energy spectrum α, and the fragmentation fraction P1, the model can fit, for the first time, all the observed scaling exponents of the structure functions, which are calculated for time lags ranging from 81 s to 0.7 h from the Helios solar wind data. From the cases we studied we cannot establish for P1 either a clear radial evolution trend, or a solar-wind-speed or stream-structure dependence or a systematic anisotropy for both the flow velocity and magnetic field component fluctuations. Generally, P1 has values between 0.7 and 0.8. However, in some cases in low-speed wind P1 has somewhat higher values for the magnetic components, especially for the radial component. In high-speed wind, the inferred intrinsic spectral indices α of the velocity and magnetic field components are about equal, while the experimental spectral indices derived from the observed power spectra differ. The magnetic index is somewhat larger than the index of the velocity spectrum. For magnetic fluctuations in both high- and low-speed winds, the intrinsic exponent α has values which are near 1.5, while the observed spectral exponent has much higher values. In the solar wind with considerable density fluctuations near the interplanetary current sheet near 1 AU, it is found that P1 has a comparatively high value of 0.89 for Vx . The impact of these results on the understanding of the nature of solar wind fluctuations is discussed, and the limitations in using structure functions to study intermittency are also described.
Flux correction and the simulation of changing climate

A flaw is pointed out in the manner in which flux correction is currently applied to coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. If a transient climate simulation were carried out using perfect initial data and a perfect model, then a perfect simulation would be made. However, if the model were flux corrected so that it is in equilibrium for current conditions, according to current practice, then errors in the simulation would grow initially to a finite amplitude and persist indefinitely. Larger errors would be produced by a simulation with the flux corrected model beginning from pre-industrial conditions than by a simulation beginning from current conditions. An example with a simple linear model is constructed to illustrate this point, and the relationship to the cold start problem is demonstrated. An optimal flux correction for the simple example is shown to be one which would eliminate the error in the current climate from a transient simulation begun sufficiently far in the past.